DATE: April 2024.
A Bitcoin bull and subsequent Death Dive
While there is inherent uncertainty in the markets, the recent all time highs achieved by both Gold and Bitcoin would have one wondering, is it now a good time to invest in these assets.
Regarding the former, bitcoin, I refer you to my page analysis on crypto Currencies in which I have identified better assets in this space. This doesn’t mean that the BitC won’t continue to rise as the market is dominated by whale investors, and the contagion effect of dragging in retail investors buying fractions of a Bit, the victims of the marketing campaign. With so much big money behind the BitC it could continue to rise, but once again I think once it reaches its peak , 75,85 ,95 and the whales eventually get out is when we can see the price retreat to under 10k.
Gold 2024 and beyond
As gold topped $2700/$2800 an ounce recently before retreating after the announcement of the new President elect, we think the commodity can continue to do well until late January/February 2025 and then we would reanalyze.
We will then look at inflation figures, if inflation is controlled we see a retreat back as far as 1800 depending on the economic indicators or it can continue higher if inflation again take hold.
The Inflated Big Tech Sector
The big tech sector is long due a major crash. This looked like it might transpire in 2021/2022, but only to return to even bigger and all-time highs. This is largely a bubble created by the large investment funds such as BlackRock and Vanguard and retirement savings being poorer into index trackers that mean large amounts of : apple, Microsoft,meta,Amazon,nividia,netflix,alphabet stock continue to be bought at exorbitant prices. Many are trading at very expensive price earnings rations and don’t or pay negligible dividends.
These big tech stocks are certain to crash big, the question is just when. It might be that the next US administration may be heavier on their market domination practices or even call for a breakup or the SEC may pursue their practices with even greater scrutiny.
Latest Tip
11th November
As I expected based upon the enthusiasm I saw, President Trump easily won the US election. His competitor was nominated without winning the democratic primary. Since his election and his outspoken economic policies that include the placement of tariffs and a strictly America first policy, there has been considerable reaction from the markets.
Bitcoin has rallied on his words of acceptance before the election that has removed dangers that it would be outlawed, taxed or prohibited in the the US. It remains to be seen if he keeps good on his promise, but the markets have reacted positively. He also issued a statement that ceased Bitcoin wouldn’t necessarily be sold. This is all positive for Bitcoin. Obviously, | have serious reservation on the fact that billion dollar funds could allow and create a Bitcoin fund. We are fully aware the Bitcoin works purely on supply and demand , seeking to draw in new buyers or forced buyers to increase its price. Ultimately we think the ending won’t be pretty but for some who enjoyed the ride getting in and out at the right times.
While markets have rallied, I expect in fact high volatility, perhaps a good thing for speculators, based on projected off the cut comments from the new administration, sudden turns from policy and perhaps removal and replacement of various presidential staff from time to time.
We believe Trump will make good on the energy policy of drilling more crude in the US, but we think despite this, we aren’t necessarily going to see geo-political stability any time near, allowing commodities to surge.
The Big Tech party which was never kind to Mr Trump is likely to come under scrutiny in the next administration, particularly alphabet and Meta. That said promises of reduced taxes could spur them on higher, as I said volatility will be at play.
While the democrats lost the election, they have been defeated but won’t be giving up any time soon. The criminal prosecutions against Trump that haven’t concluded will likely continue, possible actions against Elon Musk under the lottery and election laws are also highly possible.
As far as inflation is concerned, I’m not aware of an administration that makes it mark by reducing spending and telling people they will need to bite their tongue a little, expect more inflation and increased divide btw rich and poor as bitcoin surges by wages remain down.
Speculators Tip
I think any of the competitors to Big Tech can do well and the FTC and the European Commission are likely to increasingly reign in their monopolistic and anti-competitive behavior and acts.
Competitors to Bitc in crypto space can do well.
As far as commodities are concerned oil can do well regardless of geopolitical tensions, prices will rise on supply concerns with the war in Russia/Ukraine and Israel and the Iranian alliance, and in peace times consumption will also be strong as trade and consumption ramps up.
Crypto Bull or super cycle Dec8th
Recently Bitcoin has achieved euphoric highs above $100k. We opine that this space is highly risky and a retreat can happen with little or no notice. That said, a number of altcoins could be positioned for a major rise in the coming weeks. Without picking individual cryptos, we believe like all cycles these assets tend to have a good run after bitcoin has extended its run and there is a transfer of money from bitcoin into th other assets.
Recently we saw a retreat in these alternative cryptos from their 12 month highs, it looks like they could immediately go lower. Shorting these cryptos is an option when there is a downward trend and when the upward trend has lost some steam and traction.
Ultimately these markets are highly volatile, so we recommend you use graphing to see which way the markets are heading.
Disclaimer
All tips given are from my own personal research of the markets, looking at history,trends and tuning into the latest political ,economic and world news. None of my tips are investment advice and you should do your own due diligence before you make any investment decisions.Furthermore ,I stand to gain nothing from the bona fide tips given on my website. That said the LastEuropean wishes you the best of luck )